Climate Change Drives Divergent Potential Habitat Dynamics of Invasive and Native Noxious Asteraceae Weeds in Yunnan Grasslands

Using high-resolution field data from the Yunnan Provincial Grassland Pest Survey and an optimized MaxEnt model, we compared the climate-driven habitat dynamics of two invasive Asteraceae weeds (Chromolaena odorata, Ageratina adenophora) and a native weed (Cirsium japonicum). We assessed whether invasive and native weeds differ in environmental responses, future range dynamics, and management strategies, and three novel patterns were revealed. First, the invasive Chromolaena odorata exhibits a sustained positive response to mean annual temperature (contribution 67.6%), while the native Cirsium japonicum shows a strictly unimodal response with a narrow optimum (0–10 °C, contribution 46.4%) and high-temperature sensitivity, projecting over 50% habitat loss by the 2050s under high emissions. Second, the invasive Ageratina adenophora displays a southern contraction versus northern expansion pattern under high emissions (current highly suitable area ~9.12 × 104 km2), suggesting that extreme warming may enable it to breach high-altitude barriers. Third, all three species show unimodal responses to human disturbance with species-specific optima. Overall, the invasive species, leveraging broad ecological amplitudes and strong adaptability, are poised for continued expansion of their potential suitable habitat, while the native species, constrained by a narrow niche and limited dispersal capacity, faces systemic habitat loss. These findings provide a mechanistic basis for differentiating management strategies between invasive and native problematic weeds in Yunnan grasslands.