Statistical Variability and Lower-Tail Performance Assessment of Tensile Properties in Flax, Jute, and Carbon Fiber Composite Laminates

Natural fiber-reinforced polymer composites are attractive for lightweight and sustainable engineering applications; however, property scatter remains a major barrier to reliable design. Mean tensile properties alone are insufficient when material selection depends on repeatability and lower-tail performance. This study presents a statistical variability and lower-tail reliability assessment of flax, jute, and carbon fiber composite laminates using 590 open-access tensile test records from a published natural-fiber composite dataset. Flax and jute were selected as representative bast-fiber systems covering a range of woven, unidirectional, and short-fiber architectures; carbon fiber was included as a synthetic-fiber reference system. Three mechanically important properties were analyzed: the recalculated tensile modulus, tensile strength, and axial failure strain. Normal, lognormal, and two-parameter Weibull distributions were screened for each material-property combination using the Akaike information criterion (AIC); empirical fifth percentiles (P5) and bootstrap 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed as lower-tail descriptors. The results show that Carbon-0 has the highest lower-tail modulus and strength, with empirical fifth percentiles of 104.95 GPa and 989.64 MPa, respectively. Among the natural fiber systems, Flax-0 and Flax-VE-0 provided the highest lower-tail strengths, whereas Flax-Twill and Flax-CP showed the highest lower-tail failure strains. The lowest tensile strength coefficient of variation was observed for Flax-90 (2.41%), followed by Flax-Twill (3.43%), Flax-0 (4.50%), Jute-Satin (4.83%), and Jute-Plain (4.92%). A balanced reliability ranking that combined lower-tail property ranks and coefficient of variation ranks identified Flax-0, Flax-VE-0, Flax-Twill, Flax-CP, and Jute-Satin as the most favorable natural-fiber systems. The lower coefficient of variation values observed in aligned and satin-weave architectures relative to short-fiber and plain-weave systems reflect the role of fiber orientation uniformity in moderating property scatter at the laminate scale. This study provides a reproducible statistical framework based on lower-tail performance descriptors for comparative screening purposes, not on formal design allowables for distinguishing high mean performance from reliable minimum-level performance in natural fiber composite laminates.