Research on Extended STIRPAT Model of Agricultural Grey Water Footprint from the Perspective of Green Development

The accounting and analysis of agricultural grey water footprint (AGWF) are crucial for building a low-water-consumption agricultural production model and improving water resource efficiency in Fujian Province. This study innovatively integrated green development indicators into an extended STIRPAT model, quantitatively analyzed the drivers of AGWF from six dimensions (population, economy, technology, dietary structure, meteorology, and green development) based on data from 2009 to 2023. The results indicated that the AGWF in Fujian Province exhibited an overall upward trend, increasing from 114.61 billion m3 to 221.30 billion m3. Population expansion (elasticity: 0.49853) and economic growth (elasticity: 0.46329) were identified as the primary positive drivers, while technological progress exerted a mitigating effect (elasticity: −0.07253). The impacts of dietary structure, precipitation, and green development measures, though statistically significant, were quantitatively limited within the study period (elasticities of 0.0312, 0.0273, and 0.004, respectively). These findings provide quantitative support for formulating targeted policies for agricultural water resource management and non-point source pollution control in regions with similar characteristics.