Systemic Risk Transmission in Commodity Markets

This paper investigates tail-risk transmission and asymmetric dependence in commodity markets using an asymmetric fuzzy vine copula framework applied to gold, crude oil, natural gas, and silver from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2025, extracted from Yahoo Finance. Bootstrap-based trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to estimate fuzzy tail dependence, VaR, and CoVaR, capturing both sampling variability and parameter uncertainty. Results show generally weak and symmetric dependence among commodities, except for strong lower-tail dominance between crude oil and natural gas, indicating downside contagion within the energy sector. Adding the SKEW index as a market-implied tail-risk proxy has negligible effects on dependence and spillovers, revealing that equity-market tail-risk sentiment does not influence commodity markets. Systemic risk remains localized within energy and precious-metal linkages, underscoring the need for sector-specific monitoring.