Cryosphere Ecological Vulnerability in the Qilian Mountains Region: Trends, Drivers, and Adaptation

The rapid shrinkage of the climate-regulating cryosphere, driven by global warming and anthropogenic activities, underscores the urgency of understanding its impact on regional ecological vulnerability. This study develops a Sensitivity–Resilience–Pressure (SRP) model-based framework comprising 21 natural and socio-economic indicators, employs spatial autocorrelation and center of gravity migration to characterize spatiotemporal patterns in the Qilian Mountains region, and integrates Random Forests (RF) with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to identify key drivers. Results reveal a downward trend in the Ecological Vulnerability Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2020, with areas of very heavy vulnerability declining from 21.05% to 14.73%, indicating gradual ecological recovery. The study area exhibits moderate vulnerability, with the western region dominated by heavy and very heavy vulnerability, whereas the eastern region is characterized by potential and light vulnerability, indicating a high-west, low-east spatial pattern. A significant positive spatial autocorrelation is observed, revealing that areas with high vulnerability are highly clustered and primarily overlap with regions of high elevation and sparse vegetation. The RF–SHAP analysis demonstrates that natural factors dominate the EVI, with fractional vegetation cover, biological abundance, glacial meltwater volume, annual precipitation, and the landscape diversity index emerging as the main drivers, and the EVI changing sequentially as each indicator approaches its threshold: 0.16, 56.57, 2.23 mm, 400.73 mm, and 0.39. In conclusion, although ecological vulnerability in the Qilian Mountains has declined, future management strategies should leverage these threshold effects to implement precise, indicator-based monitoring and regulation.