Interpretable Deep Learning for Forecasting Camellia oleifera Yield in Complex Landscapes by Integrating Improved Spectral Bloom Index and Environmental Parameters

Camellia oleifera, a woody oil crop unique to China, plays a crucial role in alleviating the global pressure of edible oil supply and maintaining ecological security. However, it remains challenging to accurately forecast Camellia oleifera yield in complex landscapes using only remote sensing data. The aim of this study is to develop an interpretable deep learning model, namely Shapley Additive Explanations–guided Attention–long short-term memory (SALSTM), for estimating Camellia oleifera yield by integrating an improved spectral bloom index and environmental parameters. The study area is located in Hengyang City in Hunan Province. Sentinel-2 imagery, meteorological observation from 2019 to 2023, and topographic data were collected. First, an improved spectral bloom index (ISBI) was constructed as a proxy for flowering density, while average temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature, and wind speed were selected to represent environmental regulation variables. Second, a SALSTM model was designed to capture temporal dynamics from multi-source inputs, in which the LSTM module extracts time-dependent information and an attention mechanism assigns time-step-wise weights. Feature-level importance derived from SHAP analysis was incorporated as a guiding prior to inform attention distribution across variable dimensions, thereby enhancing model transparency. Third, model performance was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result show that the constructed SALSTM model achieved strong predictive performance in predicting Camellia oleifera yield in Hengyang City (RMSE = 0.5738 t/ha, R2 = 0.7943). Feature importance analysis results reveal that ISBI weight > 0.26, followed by average temperature and precipitation from flowering to fruit stages, these features are closely associated with C. oleifera yield. Spatially, high-yield zones were mainly concentrated in the central–southern hilly regions throughout 2019–2023, In contrast, low-yield zones were predominantly distributed in the northern and western mountainous areas. Temporally, yield hotspots exhibited a gradual increasing while low-yield zones showed mild fluctuations. This framework provides an effective and transferable approach for remote sensing-based yield estimation of flowering and fruit-bearing crops in complex landscapes.