Vegetation Succession Dynamics and Drivers in Accretional Salt Marshes: A 34-Year Case Study in Hangzhou Bay

In naturally accretional salt marshes, pioneer species typically expand seaward and colonize tidal flats. However, this process can be influenced by disturbances such as human activities and species invasions. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation succession in salt marshes is critical for wetland conservation, restoration, and management. Using southern Hangzhou Bay as a case study, we developed a remote sensing algorithm to distinguish the dominant species Scirpus mariqueter (S. mariqueter) and Spartina alterniflora (S. alterniflora). Based on long-term time-series remote sensing data (1990–2023) and twelve parameters representing environmental variables, human activity, and interspecific competition, we analyzed the seaward expansion of the dominant salt marsh species and quantified the effects of various drivers on vegetation. The results showed that as a pioneer species, S. mariqueter expanded at a rate of 0.26 km2 yr−1 and was gradually replaced by S. alterniflora, which expanded at a rate of 0.52 km2 yr−1. Over the 34-year period, both species exhibited phased expansion–decline–recovery dynamics. During the relatively stable periods (1990–2003 and 2015–2023), temperature, sea level anomaly, and sea surface salinity were the key drivers of vegetation succession. During the disturbance period (2004–2014), S. mariqueter remained primarily influenced by environmental factors, whereas S. alterniflora was primarily influenced by human activities. This study provides the first satellite-based analysis of salt marsh species dynamics in southern Hangzhou Bay over a 34-year period, revealing nonlinear, staged, and species-specific succession patterns and providing new perspectives for invasive species management and the conservation of dynamic coastal wetlands.