Spatial Assessment of Water Balance and Soil Erosion Under Land-Use Change in Chieng Hac, Northern Vietnam

Chieng Hac in northern Vietnam is expanding maize cultivation, intensifying water competition and soil erosion. This study mapped regional water balance and erosion using remote sensing and GISs by coupling the Thornthwaite–Mather (TM) water balance model with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) at 12.5 m resolution. Land cover was classified into maize, tree crops, paddy, forest, and other types using Random Forest. The TM model used 2021 precipitation and temperature measurements to estimate evapotranspiration, surplus, and deficit, while the RUSLE quantified soil loss. Two scenarios were evaluated: a baseline reflecting existing land use and an adjusted case applying strip cropping on 10–20° maize slopes and converting maize to tree crops on slopes > 20°. Tree crop conversion increased evapotranspiration and prolonged seasonal deficits relative to maize, increasing water deficit from 1013.6 to 1022.2 mm/year. In contrast, the interventions reduced mean soil loss from 15.52 to 11.51 t/ha/year, with the largest decline in the 5–25 t/ha/year class. Residual hotspots persisted on steep slopes and near drainage lines. The integrated framework highlights trade-offs between erosion control and seasonal water availability, supporting slope-based land-use planning in upland agricultural systems. These findings offer guidance for slope-based land-use planning by indicating that intervention priorities should vary depending on slope conditions and local water availability.