Maritime Trajectory Forecasting via CNN–SOFTS-Based Coupled Spatio-Temporal Features

Spatio-temporal features are crucial for maritime trajectory forecasting, especially in scenarios involving curved waterways or abrupt changes in ship motion patterns. Although Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, which are widely used for trajectory prediction, inherently include temporal and spatial information, effectively strengthening these features and integrating them into prediction models remains challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS)-based framework that explicitly couples spatial and temporal features to achieve high-fidelity maritime trajectory forecasting, especially in scenarios with complex spatial patterns. We first employ a CNN-based spatial encoder to hierarchically abstract spatial density distributions through convolution and pooling operations, thereby learning global spatial structure patterns of ship movements. This encoder emphasizes overall spatial morphology rather than precise individual trajectory points. Second, we employ the SOFTS model to incorporate angular velocity, acceleration, and angular acceleration as input features to characterize ship motion states, which can capture the temporal dependencies of ship motion states from multivariate time series. Finally, the spatial embedding features extracted by the CNN are concatenated with the temporal feature representations learned by SOFTS along the feature dimension to form a joint spatiotemporal representation. This representation is then fed into a fusion regression module composed of fully connected layers to predict future ship trajectories. Experimental results on the validation dataset show that the proposed method achieves an MSE of 0.020 and an MAE of 0.060, outperforming several advanced time series forecasting models in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The introduction of angular velocity, acceleration, and angular acceleration features reduces the MSE and MAE by approximately 10.22% and 9.49%, respectively, validating the effectiveness of the introduced dynamic features in improving trajectory prediction performance. These results underscore the proposed method's potential for intelligent navigation and traffic management systems by effectively enhancing inland river navigation safety and strengthening waterborne traffic monitoring capabilities.