Study on the Impact and Mechanism of Cultivated Land Transfer on Grain Green Total Factor Productivity in China

Exploring the impact of cultivated land transfer on grain green total factor productivity is of great significance in promoting efficient and low-carbon utilization of arable land and green and high-quality development of grain production in China. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2006 to 2022, this study employed the EBM model, Tobit model and mediation effect model to measure grain green total factor productivity across provinces, analyze its spatiotemporal evolution trends, and explore the influence and mechanisms of cultivated land transfer on the grain green total factor productivity. The findings revealed that: (i) The overall level of China’s grain green total factor productivity was relatively low, though it exhibited some improvement and regional differences during the sample period, with the highest level in grain-producing areas, followed by production-marketing balance areas, and the lowest level in grain-marketing areas. (ii) Cultivated land transfer had a significant positive impact on grain green total factor productivity. However, an excessively large scale of transferred cultivated land may also inhibit efficiency improvements. (iii) The impact of cultivated land transfer on grain green total factor productivity showed notable regional heterogeneity. In terms of coefficient magnitude, the impact was greater in production-marketing balance areas than in grain-producing areas, while it was not significant in major grain-marketing areas. The effect was stronger in the western region compared to the eastern and central regions. (iv) Cultivated land transfer could improve grain green total factor productivity through large-scale management of cultivated land, large-scale management of services and green production technology. Further analysis indicated a synergistic interaction between scale management and technological progress in green production within these pathways. To enhance grain green total factor productivity, it is essential to implement region-specific policies for cultivated land transfer and scale operations that account for local geographical and agricultural conditions. Specifically, policymakers should facilitate the integration of land scale management with service scale operation, while simultaneously promoting the coordinated advancement of scale operation and green production technology.