Interactive Stress and Synergistic Response of Ecological Security and Environmental Carrying Capacity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Against the backdrop of national policies promoting coordinated regional development and ecological civilization construction, the contradiction between ecological security and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has become increasingly prominent. However, the interaction mechanisms between these two systems remain insufficiently explored. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for ecological security and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Delta. A double exponential function is employed to examine the intensity of interaction pressure and reveal their nonlinear relationship. The coupling coordination model is applied to assess coordinated development trends, while a vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to identify the dynamic response relationships among system variables. The results indicate that the overall levels of both systems have improved, with core areas maintaining a leading position and southeastern, northeastern, and western regions remaining in a catching-up stage, accompanied by low-level convergence. Regional coordination exhibits a positive temporal evolution from imbalance to coordination, while its spatial pattern evolves from core dominance toward multi-regional convergence. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed in shock responses, with peripheral cities facing stronger industrial restructuring pressures showing greater ecological volatility. Overall, the dynamic interaction between ecological security and environmental carrying capacity demonstrates a stage-specific transition from mutual constraint to mutual promotion. This study provides empirical support for ecological restoration and regional sustainable development policymaking.