Environmental and Mechanical Trade-Off Optimization of Waste-Derived Concrete Using Surrogate Modeling and Pareto Analysis

Concrete production contributes approximately 4–8% of global cardon dioxide emissions, largely due to Portland cement. Incorporating municipal solid waste (MSW) into concrete offers a pathway to reduce cement demand while supporting circular economy objectives. This study evaluates the mechanical performance, environmental impacts, and optimization potential of concrete incorporating three MSW-derived materials: cardboard kraft fibers (KFs), recycled high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and textile fibers. A maximum 10% cement replacement strategy was adopted. Compressive strength was assessed at 7, 14, and 28 days, and a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted using OpenLCA to quantify global warming potential (GWP100) and other midpoint impacts. A surrogate-based optimization implemented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was applied to minimize cost and GWP while enforcing compressive strength as a feasibility constraint. The results show that fiber-based wastes significantly reduce embodied carbon, with KF achieving the largest GWP reduction (19%) and textile waste achieving moderate reductions (10%) relative to the control. HDPE-modified concrete exhibited near-control mechanical performance but increased GWP and fossil depletion due to polymer processing burdens. The optimization results revealed well-defined Pareto trade-offs for KF and textile concretes, identifying clear compromise solutions between cost and emissions, while HDPE was consistently dominated. Overall, textile waste emerged as the most balanced option, offering favorable environmental gains with minimal cost and acceptable mechanical performance. The integrated LCA optimization framework demonstrates a robust approach for evaluating MSW-derived concrete and supports evidence-based decision-making toward low-carbon, circular construction materials.