How Regional Employment Density Shapes Sustainable Manufacturing Performance: A Multidimensional Spatial Analysis

This study investigates the spatial effects of employment density on the economic, technological, and carbon efficiency of China’s manufacturing sector, using panel data from 30 provinces from 2008 to 2022. A multidimensional performance framework and spatial econometric models are employed to identify both direct impacts and spatial spillovers. The results show that employment density significantly enhances local economic performance while imposing negative spillover effects on neighboring regions. Technological performance exhibits uneven spatial returns, indicating a “technology siphoning” effect in more agglomerated provinces. Carbon efficiency presents a divergent pattern of “local improvement but neighboring deterioration,” highlighting cross-regional ecological externalities. In addition, human capital, capital investment, and regional policy intensity are found to regulate the strength and direction of spatial spillovers across the three performance dimensions. Based on these findings, this study recommends optimizing the spatial layout of manufacturing and population, strengthening interregional innovation collaboration, promoting green transformation, and improving the quality of human capital. These policy implications provide empirical support for advancing sustainable manufacturing development and enhancing regional governance capacity.