Avoidable Economic Losses from Influential Tropical Cyclones in a Warming China

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major driver of weather-related economic disruption in China, yet the magnitude of losses that could be avoided under strong climate mitigation remains poorly quantified. This study estimates how direct economic losses from influential tropical cyclones (ITCs) change at global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C and 4 °C. CMIP6 multi-model simulations are combined with gridded population and GDP projections and time-varying vulnerability to assess ITC-related losses during 2021–2100 relative to the 1995–2014 reference period. Results show modest changes in national-scale ITC frequency, but more intense ITC-associated precipitation and progressively higher losses with warming. Mean annual losses increase from 231.17 billion CNY at 1.5 °C to 317.72 billion CNY at 2 °C, 375.94 billion CNY at 3 °C, and 448.79 billion CNY at 4 °C (constant 2020 prices). Relative to 4 °C warming, limiting warming to 2 °C reduces mean annual losses by 131.07 billion CNY, and further limiting warming to 1.5 °C reduces losses by an additional 86.55 billion CNY. These findings quantify the avoidable component of future losses under lower warming outcomes and provide evidence that supports climate-resilient and economically sustainable development through combined mitigation and adaptation.