Impact of Digital Trade on Industry Chain Resilience: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones

It is a hot topic to enhance the stability, security, and sustainability of industrial chains, against the backdrop of adjustments and rising uncertainty in global value chains. Using Chinese A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2022 as the research sample, this study treats the establishment of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones (CBECCPZs) as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a difference-in-differences approach to empirically examine the impact of digital trade (DT) on industrial chain resilience (ICR) and its underlying mechanisms. The findings demonstrate that DT exerts a significantly positive effect on ICR, providing strong support for the long-term sustainability of the economic system. This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks, including the incorporation of high-dimensional fixed effects, exclusion of confounding policy effects, adjustments to the sample, dimension-specific tests, consideration of lagged effects, and propensity score matching. Mechanism analysis reveals that DT strengthens ICR primarily by promoting firms’ digital transformation and improving human capital levels. The heterogeneity results suggest that the contribution of digital trade to resilience differs markedly across structural dimensions: the effect is more significant among firms located in eastern regions, state-owned enterprises, firms operating in regions with higher levels of digitalization, manufacturing firms, firms in more competitive industries, and firms with stronger internal control systems. From the perspective of ICR, this study elucidates the intrinsic mechanisms through which DT fosters high-quality development and sustainable economic growth. The findings provide robust empirical evidence for understanding the strategic role of DT in enhancing the security, stability, and sustainable operation of industrial chains and in building a modern industrial system that is autonomous, controllable, secure, and efficient. Moreover, the study offers important policy implications for governments seeking to advance DT institutional innovation and promote coordinated regional development, as well as for firms aiming to leverage DT to enhance long-term competitiveness and achieve sustainable development goals.