Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Farmer Adaptation in Small-Scale Dug-Well Irrigation Systems

The impact of climate change (CC) includes a decline in agricultural production due to crop damage caused by flooding and drought, which destroys crops before harvest, particularly in small-scale irrigation areas. This has led farmers to look for alternative irrigation methods, i.e., groundwater through dug-wells. However, the volume of water obtained through dug-wells is limited. This has led farmers to select the crops they would cultivate. This study aimed to examine the factors that influence farmers in selecting the crops to be cultivated through multinomial logistic regression (MLR). A total of 118 farmers in Jember and Lumajang were randomly selected and interviewed regarding the use of wells and the selection of crops to be cultivated. The dependent variables consist of three crop pattern categories. The results showed that water access variables—particularly well depth, pumped water volume, pipe length, and pump power—significantly influence crop pattern selection (p < 0.01). Farmers adopting diversified crop patterns (food-other and mixed crop pattern) extracted substantially higher groundwater volumes (>76,659 m3 ha−1 annually) and relied on deeper wells (>90 m) compared with the food-crop-dominated pattern. In contrast, water-use-efficient strategies were characterized by lower extraction volumes (