Stakeholder Alignment and Sustainable Export Governance: A Foresight-Based MACTOR Analysis of Swallow Bird’s Nest Exports in Indonesia

Sustainable export governance increasingly extends beyond technical compliance to encompass coordination among diverse actors with competing objectives and unequal power. This study examines the governance of swallow bird’s nest (SBW) exports in Indonesia as a sustainability coordination system shaped by actor configurations, power asymmetries, and anticipatory capacity. Employing a foresight-based stakeholder analysis using the MACTOR method, the study maps influence–dependence relations, objective alignment, and mobilization capacity among key actors involved in SBW export governance in East Java. The findings reveal a stratified governance structure characterized by dominant regulatory actors, intermediary relay institutions, dependent economic stakeholders, and peripheral actors with contextual influence. While regulatory dominance ensures export compliance and market access, it generates conditions of fragile dominance in which sustainability objectives related to ecosystem resilience and local value creation remain weakly mobilized. Objective alignment is strongest around compliance imperatives and weakest for distributive and environmental goals, reflecting hierarchical prioritization embedded in actor roles and dependencies. The study demonstrates that sustainability challenges in export systems are driven by misaligned coordination and limited coalition capacity. By integrating foresight and stakeholder analysis, this research contributes a relational and anticipatory perspective to sustainable trade governance and offers insights for designing adaptive export governance arrangements.