Development of a Causal Loop Model for the Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in Oceanic Island National Parks

Establishing protected areas and promoting ecotourism are widely recognized as important pathways toward sustainable development. This study examines the development of ecotourism in oceanic island national parks by applying a systems-thinking perspective to analyze the structural feedback relationships associated with sustainability. Using the driving force–state–response (DSR) indicator framework, we construct a qualitative causal loop model to articulate the interdependencies among ecological, economic, and governance variables within island national park systems. The identified causal relationships can be organized into three principal feedback structures: one reinforcing loop and two balancing loops. These feedback structures provide a theoretically grounded interpretation of how system components may interact within the proposed conceptual framework. Although this study does not include quantitative modeling or simulation, the structural configuration highlights relational patterns among variables that may serve as a basis for subsequent empirical and computational investigation. In addition, this study uses fee-based policy as an illustrative example within the conceptual model to demonstrate how policy interventions may interact with feedback mechanisms and potentially influence park sustainability. The proposed framework provides a foundation for future research that may extend the qualitative structure into more formalized modeling approaches under alternative policy scenarios.