Assessing Water Demand and Desalination System Responses to COVID-19 in the State of Kuwait

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of full and partial curfews on water demand and production, as imposed in Kuwait during the meteorological spring (March, April, and May) of 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider all desalination technologies used in Kuwait: Multi-Stage Flash (MSF), Multi-Effect Thermal Vapor Compression (MED-TVC), and Reverse Osmosis (RO). Historical data and predictive models are combined and analyzed via a statistical genetic algorithm. The environmental and economic implications of the lockdown measures were assessed through quantitative evaluation, comparing actual 2020 water demand and production data with values predicted under normal operating conditions. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, water consumption surged, with maximum daily consumption climbing by 3.6%, and average daily consumption by 5.2%. These values were significant increases relative to 2019, for which the corresponding figures were 2.1% and 1.6%. The study assesses the economic and environmental consequences quantitatively, specifically the increase in CO, CO2, and NOx emissions, due to the increase in fuel consumption at desalination and power plants. Water demand and production across the national water network were simulated using mathematical models specifically designed for this purpose, developed from data provided by the Meteorological Department of Civil Aviation and the Ministry of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy.