Spatio-Temporal Local Sensitivity and Structural Attribution of Coordinated High-Quality New-Type Urbanization Towards Sustainable Development in China: Evidence from GTWR and OPGD Models

New-type urbanization (NTU) is a key driver of high-quality development and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in China. While existing studies acknowledge the multidimensional nature of this process, they often measure it as a single composite aggregate. This approach masks the system’s local sensitivity to internal structural changes and obscures the spatially stratified heterogeneity of dominant drivers. To address this gap, this study constructs construct a comprehensive evaluation index system using panel data for 280 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2001 to 2023. This study integrates the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, a modified coupling coordination degree model (MCCD), geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and the optimal parameters geographical detector (OPGD). Using this framework, this study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of the coordinated high-quality development (CHQD) in NTU, systematically dissecting the spatial heterogeneity of local sensitivities and dominant drivers. The results indicate that the following: (1) CHQD exhibits a continuous upward trajectory characterized by significant regional convergence, with the center of gravity gradually shifting southwest. Structurally, green and social dimensions demonstrate the most rapid growth, progressively superseding spatial expansion as primary growth poles. (2) The structural decomposition reveals clear spatially stratified heterogeneity in local sensitivity. The coastal East faces “diminishing marginal utility” of traditional factor inputs, whereas the Central and Western regions continue to reap “structural dividends” from factor accumulation. (3) The dominant drivers shaping spatial heterogeneity have undergone a sequential evolution from an early “resource-space orientation” to a later “innovation-service orientation.” For instance, in the eastern region, the proportion of construction land (L2) had a single-factor explanatory power (q-statistic) of 0.791. However, its interactions with science and technology expenditure (E3) and other factors yielded q-statistics exceeding 0.820, indicating a marked synergistic effect. These findings support region-specific policy recommendations to promote CHQD and inform sustainable urbanization pathways in China.