A Multi-Model Machine Learning Framework for Predicting and Ranking High-Risk Urban Intersections in Riyadh

Road traffic accidents at intersections pose a persistent challenge in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, contributing significantly to public health burdens and economic losses. Traditional statistical approaches often fail to capture the complex, non-linear interactions among geometric design, traffic parameters, and accident severity. This study develops a multi-methodological machine learning framework to predict intersection accident severity using the Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) metric. Historical data (2017–2023) from Riyadh Municipality for 150 high-risk intersections were analyzed, incorporating predictors such as service road distance (SRD), U-turn distance (UTD), median width (MW), peak hour volume (PHV), heavy vehicle percentage (HV%), and injury/frequency counts. Six algorithms, i.e., Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, Linear Regression, and Artificial Neural Network, were compared using a 70/30 train–test split and k-fold cross-validation in this study. The Gradient Boosting model achieved superior performance (R2 = 0.89 with MSE = 63.43 and RMSE = 7.96) and was selected for final deployment. SHAP feature importance analysis revealed minor injuries (MIs), serious injuries (SRIs), and fatalities (FAs) as the most important dominant predictors, with geometric factors (UTD, MW) and traffic composition (HV%) providing actionable infrastructure insights. The model ranked intersections and identified the “Jeddah Road with Taif Road” (predicted EPDO = 137.22) as the highest-risk location. Evidence-based recommendations include enforcing the minimum 300 m U-turn buffers with staggering service road exits ≥150 m and restricting heavy vehicles during peak hours. The scalable framework developed in this study supports the data-driven prioritization of safety interventions and aligns with sustainable urban mobility goals and offers transferability to other metropolitan contexts worldwide.