Policy-Conditioned Technology Pathways for Sustainable Steel Industry Decarbonization in China: A Soft-Linked Scenario Analysis

China’s steel decarbonization is a key sustainability challenge because cleaner production routes must be evaluated not only by their mitigation potential, but also by their implications for industrial continuity, cost affordability, resource security, and transition manageability. This study develops a national-scale soft-linked sustainability assessment framework that translates policy-conditioned macro signals into a multi-period, multi-objective optimization model of steelmaking-route transition from 2025 to 2050. Three policy environments are examined: carbon-control pressure, electricity-cost support for electrified routes, and their combined application. The model evaluates route portfolios by cumulative system cost, emissions, and transition adjustment intensity, linking mitigation with affordability and implementation feasibility. Results show that policy environments do not shift pathways uniformly; instead, they reshape the feasible trade-off frontier and alter which route combinations emerge as plausible compromise solutions. Across scenarios, scrap-based electric arc furnace steelmaking (Scrap-EAF) becomes the central medium-term route, while blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace steelmaking (BF-BOF) contracts but remains residual. Hydrogen-based direct reduced iron–electric arc furnace steelmaking (H2-DRI-EAF) expands under favorable conditions, but does not become dominant by 2050 under the baseline national-scale parameterization. Overall, this study contributes to sustainability-oriented industrial transition analysis by showing how policy-conditioned environments reshape route feasibility, transition sequencing, affordability–mitigation trade-offs, and the practical manageability of China’s steel-sector decarbonization.