Integrated Geospatial Assessment of a Human-Induced Winter Landslide in Almaty: The February 2024 Tau-Samal Event

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a landslide that occurred in February 2024 in the Tau-Samal district of Almaty, Kazakhstan. Characterized by rapid onset and anthropogenic influence, this event resulted from a complex interaction of environmental and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, the landslide was triggered by seasonal temperature fluctuations leading to multiple freeze–thaw cycles, localized microseismicity (magnitude 3.5 on 4 February 2024), and a major water main break resulting in localized flooding of loess soils. The study utilizes an integrated landslide susceptibility index (LSI) model, which combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for factor weighting. Validation was conducted by comparing the spatial distribution of high-susceptibility zones derived from the LSI model with the actual location of the landslide. Geotechnical studies highlight the susceptibility of Almaty loess, focusing on parameters such as cohesion, internal friction angle, and liquefaction potential. The findings highlight the need for climate-adapted urban policies and improved geotechnical monitoring in high-risk loess areas. This study contributes to a regional understanding of Tien Shan geohazards by placing the Tau-Samal event within the broader context of seismically and hydrologically driven slope processes.