Coordinated Urban Sustainable Development from a Multidimensional Efficiency Perspective: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Nonlinear Drivers Across Chinese Cities

Urban sustainable development increasingly depends on interactions among multiple urban subsystems, yet existing studies often overlook cross-regional linkages and nonlinear development processes. This study investigates the coordinated development of urbanization, smart development, resilience, and low-carbon transition (USRL) from an efficiency perspective. Using panel data from 278 Chinese cities during 2010–2023, this work integrates the Super-SBM model, the Local–Tele Coupling Coordination Degree (LTCCD) framework, Dagum Gini decomposition, and machine learning techniques to examine the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial disparities, and driving mechanisms of coordinated development. The results show that coordinated development improved steadily over time, although subsystem evolution remained uneven, with resilience lagging behind other dimensions. Regional disparities gradually narrowed, but inter-regional differences remained the dominant source of spatial inequality. Innovation intensity, industrial upgrading, and high-quality foreign investment positively contributed to coordinated development, whereas fiscal and financial factors exhibited nonlinear effects. Interaction analysis further revealed that coordinated development is shaped by the combined influence of multiple drivers rather than by individual factors alone. Our findings suggest that urban sustainable development is jointly influenced by subsystem coordination, cross-regional interactions, and nonlinear development dynamics, highlighting the importance of integrating local and tele-coupling processes in urban sustainability research.