The Tourism–Energy–Trade Openness Nexus and Transport CO2 Emissions in the Middle East: Evidence from an ARDL Approach

Environmental degradation has intensified alongside rising carbon emissions driven by economic expansion, energy consumption, and transport activities. In recent decades, Middle Eastern economies have experienced substantial growth in tourism, trade openness, and energy use, raising concerns about their environmental consequences. This study investigates the impact of tourism activity, energy consumption, and trade openness on transport-related CO2 emissions in ten Middle Eastern countries over the period 2000–2020. Data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database of the World Bank. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. To improve measurement robustness, tourism activity is proxied using two alternative indicators: international tourism expenditures (TEs) and international tourism receipts (TRs). The empirical results indicate that tourism activity and energy consumption significantly increase transport-related CO2 emissions in both the short and long run, while trade openness does not exert a statistically significant long-run effect. These findings suggest that tourism expansion and energy-intensive transport systems are key contributors to environmental pressure In the region, whereas the environmental impact of trade may be indirect or conditional. The study highlights the importance of integrating sustainable tourism policies and improving energy efficiency. In addition, it underscores the need to develop low-carbon transport strategies to support environmentally sustainable economic development in Middle Eastern economies.