The Education–Sustainability Paradox: Asymmetric Associations Between Human Capital Expansion and Social and Environmental Sustainable Development Goals

The proposition that expanding education uniformly advances the 2030 Agenda is widely held in policy discourse—embedded in SDG 4, amplified by UNESCO, and routinely invoked in national development strategies. This paper shows that this proposition holds only partially. Using a balanced panel of 193 countries observed over 2000–2023, we estimate 96 two-way fixed-effects regressions connecting eight measures of education—spanning expenditure, enrolment, completion, attainment, and accumulated stock—to twelve Sustainable Development Goal outcomes. The estimates reveal a pronounced block asymmetry. On the social side, educational expansion is a robust correlate of progress against poverty: a one-standard-deviation increase in secondary enrolment is associated with a 0.16-log-point lower $2.15/day extreme-poverty headcount and a 4.35-point lower value on the 0–100 SDG-1 composite, both significant at p < 0.001. On the environmental side, the same education measure is associated with a coefficient of β = +0.048 (p = 0.014) on production-based CO2 per capita and β = −0.260 (p = 0.031) on forest area—associations that are statistically significant but directionally perverse, though small in magnitude (approximately 0.05–0.26 SD on the standardised outcome). Higher schooling is also associated with higher within-country inequality (β = +0.71 on the Gini, p = 0.006). The asymmetry survives Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Oster sensitivity bounds, and two-year lagged specifications. The findings qualify the optimistic narrative that frames education as a uniform instrument for sustainable development: schooling is a robust predictor of social-block progress, but appears insufficient on its own for environmental progress and is best understood as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, dedicated environmental policy. The 2030 architecture may benefit from differentiated instrument–goal pairs rather than reliance on any single instrument across all goals.