Spatial Asymmetry in Topographic Controls on Flood Intensity: A Machine Learning Investigation of the Chi River Floodplain, Thailand

Understanding how landscape form influences inundation severity remains central to flood hazard assessment, yet many assumed relationships lack empirical scrutiny. We investigated whether five topographic attributes—elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, latitude, and longitude—could predict cumulative flood intensity across 541 hexagonal cells in Thailand’s Chi River floodplain. Using Random Forest regression and SHAP analysis, we identified three distinct asymmetries that challenge conventional assumptions. Elevation dominated predictions (58.5% importance) but operated through a sharp threshold near 150 m rather than a smooth gradient. Below 145 m, flood intensity was consistently high regardless of other factors; above 155 m, it was uniformly low. The flood-amplifying effect of low-lying terrain (+200 SHAP units) far outweighed the protective benefit of high ground (−100 SHAP units). More strikingly, the Topographic Wetness Index—a widely used theoretical measure of wetness potential—showed negligible correlation with observed flooding (r = 0.109) and contributed only 5.6% to predictive performance. Linear regression models captured barely 30% of the variance (R2 ≈ 0.305), whereas Random Forest explained 77.6% (R2 = 0.7765), a performance gap that quantifies the degree of non-linearity in the system. Spatial cross-validation confirmed generalizability (R2 = 0.583). The elevation threshold offers a straightforward zoning framework: high-risk areas below 145 m, transitional zones from 145 to 155 m, and low-risk areas above 155 m. We conclude that theoretical indices require empirical validation and that combining machine learning with symmetry-based reasoning can expose hidden structures in environmental systems that linear approaches miss.