Modeling Individual Risk Decision-Making: A Self-Organization Based Psychological Game Framework [F(T, P, C, R)]

Modernizing public security risk governance demands a paradigm shift from reactive response to proactive, systems-oriented prevention. Prevailing governance models, with their focus on institutions and technology, often neglect the micro-foundational mechanisms of risk generation: the internal psychological processes of individuals. To address this gap, this study develops a novel theoretical model—the F(T, P, C, R) framework—which integrates self-organization theory with a psychological gaming perspective. We conceptualize an individual’s behavioral choice (F_behavior) as an emergent outcome of the dynamic interplay among four constitutive factors: the situational context of Time (T) and Place (P), and the cognitive assessments of perceived Risk Control power (C) and perceived Risk Destructive power (R). Employing automotive driving behavior—specifically decisions regarding safe distance maintenance and the adoption of autonomous driving technologies—as our primary analytical scenario, we derive a dynamic risk-decision matrix. This matrix categorizes behavioral outcomes into four distinct quadrants (Confirm, Tend-to-Confirm, Tend-to-Deny, Deny) based on the subjective calculus between C and R, thereby elucidating the internal logic of risk-related choices. The study’s main contribution is constituted by this novel micro-behavioral analytical framework that integrates cognitive science with systems-based governance principles. It offers theoretical insights for behavioral public policy and provides a structured toolkit for diagnosing and designing targeted interventions, ultimately aiming to enhance proactive risk management and systemic resilience.