Modeling China’s Urban Network Structure: Unraveling the Drivers from a Population Mobility Perspective

Intercity population flows are playing an increasingly pivotal role in shaping the spatial evolution and structural dynamics of urban networks. Drawing upon Amap Migration Data (2018–2023), this study maps China’s urban networks using social network analysis and identifies their key drivers using a temporal exponential random graph model. The findings reveal three primary insights: First, the overall network exhibits “high connectivity and strong clustering” traits. Enhanced efficiency in intercity resource allocation fosters cross-regional factor flows, resulting in multi-tiered connectivity corridors. Industrial linkages and policy interventions drive the development of a polycentric and clustered configuration. Second, the individual city network exhibits a core–periphery dynamic structure. A diamond-shaped framework dominated by hub cities in the national strategic regions directs factor flows. Development of strategic corridors enables peripheral cities to evolve into secondary hubs by leveraging structural hole advantages, reflecting the continuous interplay between network structure and geo-economic factors. Third, driving factors involve nonlinear interactions within a multi-layered system. Path dependence in topology, gradient potential from nodal attributes, spatial counterbalance between geographic decay laws and multidimensional proximity, and adaptive self-organization are collectively associated with the transition of the urban network toward a multi-tiered synergistic pattern. By revealing the dynamic interplay between network topology and multidimensional driving factors, this study deepens and advances the theoretical connotations of the “Space of Flows” theory, providing an empirical foundation for optimizing regional governance strategies and promoting high-quality coordinated development of Chinese cities.