When Does Digital Maturity Become a Systemic Advantage? Modelling E-Commerce Behaviour and Competitiveness in Europe

Digitalisation is reshaping commercial systems in Europe, yet the joint evolution of national digital capabilities, e-commerce and macroeconomic performance remains imperfectly understood. This article develops a parsimonious Digital Maturity Index for the EU-27 over 2015–2023 and examines its association with the share of enterprise turnover generated through e-commerce using a systems-oriented econometric design. Two-way fixed-effects and dynamic panel models show that e-commerce turnover is strongly persistent within countries and systematically higher in more trade-open economies and in labour markets with slightly higher unemployment, after controlling for income and unobserved heterogeneity. The marginal effect of digital maturity on e-commerce intensity is small and statistically fragile, suggesting that digital capabilities act more as a slow-moving state variable than as a direct short-run driver of online sales. The marginal within-country effect of digital maturity on e-commerce intensity is small and statistically fragile once unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for, whereas trade openness and labour-market conditions remain robust correlates. The PVAR results suggest a stable system with strong persistence in e-commerce and digital maturity, limited spillovers to growth and a pronounced temporary contraction in output during the COVID-19 shock.