Geopolitical Risk and Shipping Supply Chain Resilience: Systemic Characteristics, Impact Mechanisms, and the Security of Logistics Nodes

Understanding how geopolitical risk propagates through shipping networks to impact shipping supply chain resilience (SSCR) is essential for advancing global maritime governance reform. This study examines the systemic effects of geopolitical risk on SSCR using cross-border panel data derived from international shipping networks and identifies the transmission mechanisms operating through critical logistics nodes. The results indicate that geopolitical risk exerts a significant and persistent negative impact on SSCR, with significant multidimensional heterogeneity. Mechanism analysis shows that SSCR is undermined through three channels: logistics infrastructure disruption, increased freight rate volatility, and reduced customs clearance efficiency. Node-level evidence further reveals consistently negative effects across most critical logistics nodes. Logistics infrastructure disruption is particularly pronounced in ports. Logistics nodes along Indian Ocean routes exhibit more pervasive effects through the freight rate volatility channel, while reduced customs clearance efficiency represents a common transmission channel across most nodes.