Spatiotemporal Analysis and Forecasting of Traffic Accidents in Ecuador Using DBSCAN and Ensemble Time Series Modeling

Traffic accidents pose a persistent challenge for urban mobility, public safety, and sustainable development in smart cities, particularly in rapidly growing urban environments. This study presents a data-driven spatiotemporal analysis of traffic accidents in Ecuador, aimed at supporting evidence-based urban traffic management and road safety planning. Using large-scale historical accident records, the proposed approach combines spatial clustering and temporal forecasting techniques to characterize accident concentration patterns and temporal dynamics at national and metropolitan scales. Spatial accident hotspots are identified using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), enabling the detection of high-risk zones without imposing assumptions on cluster shape or size. This analysis reveals strong spatial concentration of accidents, with a limited number of clusters accounting for a substantial proportion of fatalities and injuries. Complementary temporal analysis is conducted using a multi-model ensemble framework to examine accident trends and seasonal patterns. This approach integrates SARIMA for linear stochastic modeling and Prophet for additive trend analysis, alongside two Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures: a direct 12-month vector output and a recursive horizon-3 model. By synthesizing these statistical and neural network-based methods through inverse-RMSE weighting, the study captures both stable seasonal cycles and non-linear, short-to-medium-term variations in accident frequency. Results show that traffic accidents in Ecuador exhibit stable diurnal and seasonal structures, alongside pronounced spatial heterogeneity across urban regions. The combined spatial and temporal insights provide a coherent representation of accident risk patterns, facilitating the prioritization of critical zones and high-risk periods. The resulting hotspot maps and multi-model forecasting horizons offer actionable information for smart city stakeholders, supporting targeted infrastructure interventions, adaptive enforcement strategies, and data-informed urban mobility policies. This work contributes to the broader understanding of traffic safety analytics as a core component of smart city decision-support systems.