Study on Spatio-Temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Soil and Water Conservation Ecosystem Services in the Source Region of the Yellow River

This study takes the source region of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2024 as the research area, and integrates multi-source remote sensing, long-term meteorological observation, and land use data from 2000 to 2024. Using GIS spatial analysis, the standard ellipse model, and a geographic detector, this study systematically depicts the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and multi-scale evolution trend of soil and water conservation services, and then quantifies the spatial differentiation of the contribution rate of climate fluctuation, land use transformation, and human activity intensity to service change. The results showed the following: (1) The land use pattern in the source region of the Yellow River showed a one-way transformation of “grassland dominated, forest land increased alone, and the rest decreased”. The net increase in forest land 204.3 km2 was all from the transformation of grassland. The vegetation coverage increased by 9.9%, and the low-value area of soil and water conservation services in the northwest continued to expand. (2) The overall moving distance of the center of gravity of soil and water conservation service capacity is not significant compared with the spatial scale of the source area of the Yellow River. The standard deviation ellipse of each year also did not show systematic and large changes in area, shape, or direction. (3) Annual mean temperature (Q = 0.590) and vegetation coverage (Q = 0.527) are the most influential single factors, while the interaction between annual mean temperature and precipitation (bidirectional enhancement) is the most stable synergistic driving combination. The single-factor Q values of topography and human activities were