Impact of Climate and Land Cover Dynamics on River Discharge in the Klambu Dam Catchment, Indonesia

This study examines the hydrological response of the Klambu Dam Catchment in Central Java, Indonesia, to climatic and land cover changes from 2000–2023, with simulations extending to 2040. Utilizing CHIRPS satellite data calibrated with six ground stations, monthly precipitation and temperature datasets were analyzed and projected via linear regression aligned with IPCC scenarios, revealing a marginal temperature decline of 0.21 °C (from 28.25 °C in 2005 to 28.04 °C in 2023) and a 17% increase in rainfall variability. Land cover assessments from Landsat imagery highlighted drastic changes: a 73.8% reduction in forest area and a 467.8% increase in mixed farming areas, alongside moderate fluctuations in paddy fields and settlements. The Thornthwaite-Mather water balance method simulated monthly discharge, validated against observed data with Pearson correlations ranging from 0.5729 (2020) to 0.9439 (2015). Future projections using Cellular Automata-Markov modeling indicated stable volumetric flow but a temporal shift, including a 28.1% decrease in April rainfall from 2000 to 2040, contracting the wet season and extending dry spells. These shifts pose significant threats to agricultural and aquaculture activities, potentially exacerbating water scarcity and economic losses. The findings emphasize integrating dynamic land cover data, climate projections, and empirical runoff corrections for climate-resilient watershed management.