PlanetScope Imagery and Hybrid AI Framework for Freshwater Lake Phosphorus Monitoring and Water Quality Management

Accurate estimation of Total Phosphorus, referred to as “Phosphorus, Total” (PPUT; µg/L) in the sourced monitoring data, is essential for understanding eutrophication dynamics and guiding water-quality management in inland lakes. However, lake-wide PPUT mapping at high resolution is challenging to achieve using conventional in-situ sampling, and nearshore gradients are often poorly resolved by medium- or low-resolution satellite sensors. This study exploits multi-generation PlanetScope imagery (Dove Classic, Dove-R, and SuperDove; 3–5 m, near-daily revisit) to develop a hybrid AI framework for PPUT retrieval in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada. PlanetScope surface reflectance, short-term meteorological descriptors (3 to 7-day aggregates of air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and sea-level pressure), and in-situ Secchi depth (SSD) were used to train five ensemble-learning models (HistGradientBoosting, CatBoost, RandomForest, ExtraTrees, and GradientBoosting) across eight feature-group regimes that progressively extend from bands-only, to combinations with spectral indices and day-of-year (DOY), and finally to SSD-inclusive full-feature configurations. The inclusion of SSD led to a strong and systematic performance gain, with mean R2 increasing from about 0.67 (SSD-free) to 0.94 (SSD-aware), confirming that vertically integrated optical clarity is the dominant constraint on PPUT retrieval and cannot be reconstructed from surface reflectance alone. To enable scalable SSD-free monitoring, a knowledge-distillation strategy was implemented in which an SSD-aware teacher transfers its learned representation to a student using only satellite and meteorological inputs. The optimal student model, based on a compact subset of 40 predictors, achieved R2 = 0.83, RMSE = 9.82 µg/L, and MAE = 5.41 µg/L, retaining approximately 88% of the teacher’s explanatory power. Application of the student model to PlanetScope scenes from 2020 to 2025 produces meter-scale PPUT maps; a 26 July 2024 case study shows that >97% of the lake surface remains below 10 µg/L, while rare (