A Baseflow Equation: Example of the Middle Yellow River Basins

Existing baseflow estimation methods—such as exponential recession models, linear reservoir approaches, and digital filtering techniques—seldom account for anthropogenic disturbances or evapotranspiration-induced streamflow alterations. To address this limitation, a physically based baseflow equation that explicitly integrates human water withdrawals and evapotranspiration losses has been introduced. The governing equation was reformulated from a nonlinear storage–discharge relationship and validated against multi-decadal streamflow records in the Middle Yellow River Basin (MYRB). Results demonstrate that the proposed model accurately reproduces observed recession behavior across diverse sub-basins (NSE ≥ 0.94; RMSE ≤ 152 m3 s−1). By providing reliable baseflow estimates, the equation enables quantitative assessment of eco-hydrological benefits and informs cost-effective water-resource investments. Furthermore, long-term baseflow simulations driven by climate projections offer a scientific basis for evaluating climate-change impacts on regional water security.