Bridging Time-Scale Mismatch in WWTPs: Long-Term Influent Forecasting via Decomposition and Heterogeneous Temporal Attention

The time-scale mismatch between rapid influent fluctuations and slow biochemical responses hinders the stability of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Existing models often fail to capture shock signals due to noise interference (“signal pollution”). To address this, we propose the HD-MAED-LSTM model, which employs a “decompose-and-conquer” strategy. Targeting the dynamic characteristics of different components, this study innovatively designs heterogeneous attention mechanisms: utilizing Long-term Dependency Attention to capture the global evolution of the trend component, employing Multi-scale Periodic Attention to reinforce the cyclic patterns of the seasonal component, and using Gated Anomaly Attention to keenly capture sudden shocks in the residual component. In a case study, the effectiveness of the proposed model was validated based on one year of operational data from a large-scale industrial WWTP. HD-MAED-LSTM outperformed baseline models such as Transformer and LSTM in the medium-to-long-term (10-h) prediction of COD, TN, and TP, clearly demonstrating the positive role of differentiated modeling. Notably, in the core task of shock load early warning, the model achieved an F1-Score of 0.83 (superior to Transformer’s 0.77 and LSTM’s 0.67), and a Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA) as high as 0.93. Ablation studies confirm that the specialized attention mechanism is the key performance driver, reducing the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 56.7%. This framework provides precise support for shifting WWTPs from passive response to proactive control.