Seasonal and Spatial Variations in General Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Shape Parameter for Estimating Extreme Design Rainfall in Tasmania

This paper demonstrates seasonal variations in the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution shape parameter and discrepancies in GEV types within the same location. Daily rainfall data from 26 rain gauge stations located in Tasmania were used as a case study. Four GEV distribution parameter estimation techniques, such as MLE, GMLE, Bayesian, and L-moments, were used to determine the shape parameter of the distribution. With the estimated shape parameter, the spatial variations under different seasons were investigated through GIS interpolation maps. As there is strong evidence that shape parameters potentially vary across locations, spatial analysis focusing on the shape parameter across Tasmania (Australia) was performed. The outcomes of the analysis revealed that the shape parameters exhibit their highest and lowest values in winter, with a range from −0.234 to 0.529. The analysis of the rainfall data revealed that there is significant variation in the shape parameters among the seasons. The magnitude of the shape parameter decreases with elevation, and a non-linear relationship exists between these two parameters. This study extends knowledge on the current framework of GEV distribution shape parameter estimation techniques at the regional scale, enabling the adoption of appropriate GEV types and, thus, the appropriate determination of design rainfall to reduce hazards and protect our environments.