Explainable Monitoring Model Based on AE-BiGRU and SHAP Analysis of Seepage Pressure for Concrete Dams

Precise forecasting and physical elucidation of seepage behavior are crucial for maintaining the operational safety of concrete dams. Nonetheless, current monitoring methodologies frequently fail to adequately encompass nonlinear temporal relationships in seepage processes and exhibit a deficiency in straightforward interpretability. This paper provides an explainable monitoring approach that combines an alpha-evolution Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (AE-BiGRU) with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP)-based interpretability analysis to solve these shortcomings. An AE-BiGRU prediction model is first developed, in which the BiGRU architecture exploits bidirectional temporal dependencies to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness. The alpha-evolution algorithm is then employed to optimize key hyperparameters of the neural network, thereby further improving model performance. Subsequently, SHAP interpretability analysis is applied to quantify the contribution of individual input variables and to elucidate the physical drivers of seepage variation. Validation utilizing long-term seepage monitoring data from a roller-compacted concrete (RCC) gravity dam indicates that the proposed AE-BiGRU model substantially surpasses benchmark models, including LSTM and traditional GRU variations. Furthermore, SHAP interpretability analysis reveals the predominant influences of reservoir water level fluctuations and cumulative temporal factors on seepage evolution patterns. The suggested approach attains high-precision seepage prediction while ensuring physically meaningful interpretability, thus providing a dependable foundation for safety evaluation and intelligent monitoring of concrete dams.