Who Benefits from the EV Transition? Electric Vehicle Adoption and Progress Toward the SDGs Across Income Groups

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as a key strategy for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and advancing sustainable development. However, the real-world benefits of EV adoption may vary across countries with different income levels and energy systems. This study investigates the relationship between EV adoption and CO2 emissions per capita, as well as overall sustainable development performance (SDG Index), across 50 countries from 2010 to 2023. Using panel quantile regression, we find that EV adoption is significantly associated with reduced CO2 emissions particularly in the high-emitting countries in high-income countries (interaction coefficient at the 90th quantile = −0.24, p < 0.05) but positively associated with emissions in lower- and middle-income countries at lower quantiles of the emissions distribution. Similarly, while EV adoption correlates positively with the SDG Index in high-income countries, it shows negative effects at the median and several quantiles. These findings challenge the “zero-emission” assumption and demonstrate that the climate and development benefits of EV diffusion are context-dependent and unevenly distributed, highlighting the need for policies that link electrification to renewable energy deployment, infrastructure development, and equitable access.