Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in a Typical Karst Region

This study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service values (ESVs), analyzes their dynamic response to land use and land cover change (LUCC), and explores future ESVs under different scenarios in the Wumeng Mountain area (WMA). The goal is to reveal the driving mechanisms of LUCC on ESVs and provide a scientific basis for sustainable land use planning in this region. We integrated land use change detection, multi-scenario simulations using the mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model, and a locally calibrated equivalent factor method to assess ESVs. A novel ecological network analysis was also performed to visualize value flow patterns under different scenarios. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations and Sobol indices was applied to identify key driving factors of ESV variability. Based on land use datasets, the MCCA model simulated 2030 land use patterns under 3 scenarios: business-as-usual (BU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological conservation (EC). Key findings include the following: (a) From 2000 to 2020, the WMA was dominated by forest, cropland, and grassland (>97%), but cropland (−5.33%) and wetland (−13.14%) decreased, while construction land (+417.57%), water (+98.86%), and grassland (+2.94%) increased. (b) In 2030 simulations, the BU scenario continued current trends, the CP scenario halted cropland loss, and the EC scenario expanded ecological land and reduced construction and cropland. (c) Total ESVs increased from ¥269.396 billion to ¥276.068 billion, with a pattern of “higher in the north, higher in peripheral zones”. These findings offer valuable insights for land management and EC strategies in the WMA.