Probabilistic Carbon Analysis of Pakistan’s Bridges Unveils the Urgent Needs of Overdesign Optimization and Policy Transformation

Rapid infrastructure expansion in emerging economies is increasing construction-related carbon emissions. Using a probabilistic assessment of 52 planned bridges on Pakistan’s M-13 Motorway, the average carbon emission intensity (CEI) is 1,430 kg CO 2 eq per square meter, 1.15 to 1.50 times higher per m 2 of deck area than international benchmarks. The raw material (extraction and production) phase dominates the footprint (94.4%), with reinforcement (48.9%) and concrete (39.4%) as the principal material contributors; both display high variability (coefficients of variation 67% to 130%), signaling substantial uncertainty. Evidence points to systemic inefficiencies, including conservative overdesign, reliance on foreign codes, and the absence of standardized local emission data. Targeted measures, structural optimization using digital tools, wider adoption of recycling and low-carbon mixes, and development of context-specific emission factor databases offer a scalable pathway to lower-carbon bridge infrastructure in Pakistan and comparable settings.