Progress and Bottlenecks in Large-Scale Commercial Space Transportation Systems

With global space activities shifting from an exploration-oriented focus to large-scale development and utilization, low-cost, "airline-mode", and high-capability space transportation capabilities have become the critical foundation for supporting the construction of space infrastructure and the flourishing of the space economy. This paper targets the "dual-hundredfold" goal, aiming for a hundredfold increase in both payload insertion mass and launch frequency compared to current levels. After analyzing the development trends and challenges of large-scale space transportation systems, key technologies-such as ultra-high-speed re-entry active thermal management, long life-cycle engines, efficient low-temperature propellant transfer control and precise sensing, aerodynamic-assisted orbital maneuvers, aerodynamic and control integration design for the payloads featuring high lift-to-drag ratios and high packing densities, and fully electric-driven pressurization and fluid transport control technologies-are discussed. Breakthroughs in these technologies are expected to revolutionize human access to space, give rise to new intercontinental travel paradigms, and reshape the global technological competition landscape and strategic balance.