Investigating the Dynamic Relationship between the Blue Economy and Economic Growth in Jordan: A Time-Series Econometric Analysis

Objective: This study seeks to investigate the dynamic relationship between the blue economy and economic growth in Jordan during the period (1982–2023), with the aim of identifying the extent to which blue economy activities contribute to supporting the path of sustainable economic growth and strengthening its foundations. Methods: The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to estimate the short‑run and long‑run relationships among the research variables. Unit root tests are conducted to verify the integration order of the variables and ensure the validity of the econometric modeling. Results: Unit root test results indicate that the variables under study—total fish production (TFP), aquaculture production (AP), the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector (AFF), trade volume (TRD), and economic growth in Jordan (LNEG)—are integrated of orders I(0) and I(1), confirming the suitability of the ARDL approach for this analysis. The econometric results reveal a statistically significant long‑run equilibrium relationship for aquaculture production, the agriculture–forestry–fishing sector, and trade volume, each demonstrating the expected positive effect on economic growth. In contrast, total fish production is found to have a negative impact on economic growth. This is attributed to its limited contribution to GDP, due to the small size of Jordan’s water resources (restricted to the Gulf of Aqaba), the country’s heavy reliance on imported marine products, and the weak linkage with value‑added manufacturing industries such as canning, freezing, and export processing—factors that reduce the multiplier effect of these activities on the broader economy. Furthermore, the results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the structural stability of the model throughout the study period. Conclusion: The study concludes with a recommendation to expand investment in the development of sustainable aquaculture, strengthen related manufacturing industries, and reinforce policies for marine resource protection. Such measures are essential to enhancing the contribution of the blue economy to stimulating sustainable economic growth and improving its overall capacity in Jordan.