THE AIRBNB EFFECT: A CAUSAL INFERENCE STUDY ON HOTEL OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY AND THE EFFICACY OF REGULATORY RESPONSES

The meteoric rise of platform-mediated short-term rentals (P2P), epitomized by Airbnb, has fundamentally reshaped the global hospitality landscape, triggering a profound socio-economic crisis in key tourist destinations. While celebrated as a disruptive innovation offering consumer choice, the unbridled expansion of P2P rentals has been linked to the erosion of urban communities and posed an existential threat to the traditional hotel industry, particularly in the economy and mid-scale segments. Existing literature confirms a negative correlation, yet critical gaps remain: a scarcity of cross-jurisdictional comparative studies accounting for regulatory heterogeneity and a lack of micro-level, brand-specific causal evidence. This study addresses these gaps by employing a quasi-experimental Difference-in-Differences (DiD) design to quantify the causal impact of P2P rental market penetration on hotel operational efficiency. Analyzing a balanced sample of ten global cities-stratified into "treatment" (liberal regulation) and "control" (strict regulation) groups-we construct a novel composite index for P2P penetration. Utilizing performance data (RevPAR) from major hotel conglomerates like Accor and Hilton, we isolate the "pure" Airbnb effect from broader market trends. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative causal relationship, with an average RevPAR penalty of €28.45 for hotels in liberal-regime cities. Crucially, the impact exhibits a clear downward gradient, being most severe for economy brands and substantially weaker for luxury segments. This research contributes to the discourse on the platform economy by providing robust causal evidence and highlights regulatory policy as a decisive factor in preserving market equilibrium and hotel industry viability.