Quantitative assessment of geoeconomic fragmentation processes and their structural impact on economic integration

Aim. This work aimed to conduct a comprehensive quantitative analysis of geoeconomic fragmentation processes as a key structural trend in the contemporary global economy and assess its impact on the transformation of international economic relations, trade and investment f lows, and the formation of a new architecture of global economic interactions. Objectives . The work seeks to analyze the dynamics of geopolitical risk indices, trade and fiscal uncertainty; assess changes in the trade openness coefficient of the global economy; study the scale and direction of protectionist measures of leading countries; identify the impact of US tariff policy on the global trade architecture; demonstrate the transformation of approaches to supply chain management (reshoring, friendshoring, nearshoring); assess structural shifts in bilateral trade relations and the dynamics of trade within and between geopolitical blocs; reveal the impact of fragmentation on foreign direct investment flows and the international financial architecture; as well as to systematize key fragmentation indicators and construct a general index reflecting its dynamics across key areas. Methods . The study employed a combination of economic and statistical analysis methods, including time series analysis, calculation of relative indicators, comparative analysis, and index assessment. The information base included data from international organizations (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), specialized databases (Global Trade Alert, UN Comtrade, Geopolitical Fragmentation Index), as well as analytical materials from national statistical services and research centers. Results . Geoeconomic fragmentation has been established to be a persistent structural trend, manifested across a wide range of indicators, where geopolitical risk and trade uncertainty indices have reached historical highs, the trade openness coefficient has shown a steady decline since its 2022 peak, the number of protectionist measures is more than three times higher than liberalizing ones, and the average weighted import rate in the United States has reached its highest value since 1943. Friendshoring is found to be growing faster than nearshoring, confirming the priority of geopolitical factors over economic ones. A systemic redistribution of global trade f lows is registered, manifested in the strengthening of new strategic alliances and the weakening of historically established ties. Trade volumes within geopolitical blocs are shown to be growing at a faster rate than inter-bloc trade. A reduction in global foreign direct investment flows, their reorientation toward politically proximate jurisdictions, and an unprecedented expansion of sanctions regimes are also detected. A general fragmentation index has been constructed, which dynamics indicate a transition from a phase of stable globalization (1990–2000) to a phase of accelerated fragmentation after 2022. Political fragmentation, however, demonstrates the most pronounced growth. Conclusions . Geoeconomic fragmentation is a politically motivated, multidimensional process encompassing trade, finance, migration, and political spheres, leading to the formation of a polycentric global economic architecture with the consolidation of blocs around key centers of power. The long-term consequences of fragmentation are systemically recurrent destructive in nature and could lead to a 7 % reduction in real global gross domestic product by 2040. At the same time, fragmentation stimulates the deepening of integration processes within associations which become natural “safe havens” for participants, defining the contours of a new model of global economic relations based on strategic autonomy.