Investor sentiment and behavioural biases in bank performance during COVID-19: Evidence from South Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global economic crisis that significantly impacted the South African banking sector, already weakened by a pre-existing recession. While bank profitability and credit quality declined, stock market reactions appeared less severe, indicating a potential disconnect between fundamentals and investor behaviour. This study explores the influence of investor sentiment on credit risk, lending, and performance (ROA) of selected JSE-listed banks during the pandemic, incorporating behavioural finance perspectives. Panel regression analysis reveals that COVID-19 had a significant negative effect on stock, ROA and ROE, driven by heightened uncertainty and rising non-performing loans. Liquidity and capital positively influenced returns and ROE, reflecting investor confidence in resilient banks. Investor sentiment had a weakly positive impact on returns, but a significant negative effect on both ROA and ROE, suggesting that excessive optimism may have led to riskier lending practices and reduced profitability. Larger banks underperformed in terms of returns, likely due to operational complexity during the crisis. These findings highlight the critical role of behavioural factors in shaping financial outcomes during systemic shocks and provide new insights into emerging market banking dynamics under crisis conditions.