Análise dos possíveis impactos da perda dos benefícios do SGP pelo Brasil

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) aims to establish a partial or total reduction in import tariffs charged by developed countries on products from developing countries, with the primary objective of reducing the distances between these countries in economic terms. Although Brazil still relies on the benefits of the GSP granted by some countries, several important partners, such as Canada, Japan, the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), have withdrawn the country from the system, and the US has not renewed its concession since 2021. Thus, this paper seeks to examine the possible impacts of Brazil's loss of GSP benefits, focusing on its exports to the US and the EU. For the North American case, documentary research and descriptive analysis were used, through the decomposition of Brazilian exports carried out under the GSP in the period from 2000 to 2024. In the European case, the Synthetic Control Method (MCS) was applied, considering Brazilian products that lost the benefits of the GSP in 2001 and the consequences of this exclusion. The results suggest that the loss of the GSP was not very relevant in explaining the fluctuations in Brazilian exports to the EU, which appear to be more related to the movements seen in global imports. Along the same lines, the data suggest that the GSP has lost importance in explaining Brazilian exports destined for the US market over the years.