Divergencia criminal: un análisis empírico de la estructura del delito en Colombia (2010-2024)

The convergence of illicit economies, armed group violence, and urban crime in Colombia challenges empirical approaches that tend to reduce crime to one or a few variables. To determine patterns of criminal occurrence and their drivers, this study uses 52 crime variables for the period 2010–2024 and applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and fixed-effects panel models at the departmental level. The PCA reveals two orthogonal dimensions: (i) property and interpersonal violence offences (e.g., theft, fraud) and (ii) strategic criminality associated with armed groups (e.g., forced displacement, disappearance, illicit recruitment). The panel analysis confirms their divergence: the first dimension shows a linear relationship with population (elasticity = 2.85), whereas the second exhibits no significant links to demographic or economic predictors, pointing to the primacy of structural factors. The evidence challenges the use of aggregated approaches and supports the need for differentiated public policies according to the type of criminality and its territorial scope. The study provides an empirical framework that contributes to the design of security strategies tailored to territorial dynamics and to the specific nature of each dimension of crime.