An analysis of Economic Impact of the UAE–India CEPA on Bilateral Trade: A data driven study over the years

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) share a deep-rooted partnership built on trade, energy, diaspora, and strategic cooperation. The UAE is India’s thirdlargest trading partner after United States and China, and a major energy supplier, while India exports gems, textiles, machinery, and food products. The 2022 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed with an ambition to further elevate bilateral trade by reducing tariffs and expanding market access. The UAE hosts over 3.5 million Indians, contributing to its economy and remitting significantly to India. Together, both nations drive regional cooperation in trade, energy, and innovation. This study investigates the impact CEPA between the UAE and India on bilateral trade. This partnership agreement is India’s first bilateral trade pact in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the CEPA extends beyond goods to include services, investments, and broader areas of economic cooperation. This study however predominantly investigates Merchandise Trade between the UAE and India over the years. Drawing on multiple data sources— including Ministry of Commerce, Government of India, trade statistics and news items, the analysis compares trade patterns between the two countries before and after the agreement’s implementation. Findings indicate that the CEPA has significantly deepened bilateral trade particularly in sectors such as mineral fuels, precious and semi-precious stones, gems and jewellery, clothes, mechanical appliances, aircraft and parts thereof, floating structures and more. India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) share a deep-rooted partnership built on trade, energy, diaspora, and strategic cooperation. The UAE is India’s thirdlargest trading partner after United States and China, and a major energy supplier, while India exports gems, textiles, machinery, and food products. The 2022 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed with an ambition to further elevate bilateral trade by reducing tariffs and expanding market access. The UAE hosts over 3.5 million Indians, contributing to its economy and remitting significantly to India. Together, both nations drive regional cooperation in trade, energy, and innovation. This study investigates the impact CEPA between the UAE and India on bilateral trade. This partnership agreement is India’s first bilateral trade pact in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the CEPA extends beyond goods to include services, investments, and broader areas of economic cooperation. This study however predominantly investigates Merchandise Trade between the UAE and India over the years. Drawing on multiple data sources— including Ministry of Commerce, Government of India, trade statistics and news items, the analysis compares trade patterns between the two countries before and after the agreement’s implementation. Findings indicate that the CEPA has significantly deepened bilateral trade particularly in sectors such as mineral fuels, precious and semi-precious stones, gems and jewellery, clothes, mechanical appliances, aircraft and parts thereof, floating structures and more.